For years I’ve been trying to write this peice in time for the Oscars, but always failed because, let’s face it, it takes lots of time to watch all of them movies. I’ve always wanted to guess the winners or maybe disagree with the Academy on some things, which I’m sure will also happen now. This year I saw all movies from the major categories except forThe Artist, and I think I can make a pretty good guess what the good old white folks in the Academy will choose. I’ll also give my two cents and offer my humble opinion on who’s been neglected in the nominations and who I personally think should win. Hopefully you’ll enjoy what I have to say…
The Best Movie
This is probably the trickiest categorty to guess even probabilistically speaking. The long-lived relationship between Stephen Speilberg and the Academy is not likely to get him this one I think. War Horse is the Spielberg version of a Walt Disney sort of movie about horses, only the horses dodn’t speak and there’s WWx in the background. The next one I kick out in the rain is The Tree of Life. There was this moment when I was watching it, when I wasn’t sure what exactly is going on and if this movie will ever show an actual conversation. It certainly is an interesting peice of art, but it is a bit aside from what I think the Academy, and I for that matter, would call the Best Movie of the year. Hugo is a wonderful, wonderful tale, but it really strikes me as odd that it got nominated — in my mind I see the best movies being for grown-ups or at least funnier. Moneyball is just a box office champion based on a true story about baseball. I don’t see it as a particularly masterful art achievement though. Personally, I am a Woody Allen fan, totally, but when I look back Midnight in Paris isn’t the best movie I’ve seen this year. The real fight is going to be between the other four nominees and I think any of them would be a possible winner. If I have to guess I think the little golden guy will go to The Descendents for being that emotional and gripping movie with great cast and great acting — old white guys should like that. I, on the other hand, like The Help because of Harper Lee’s masterful writing that made me fall forever in love with the old American South. I think it’s a movie with a great truth-based story, but what I really like about it is the balance between the characters and how you don’t feel that the main story is dominated by one of their stories, but rather all of them sum up to one. I think that is what the book was supposed to be about and I hope I’m right. If there was some sort of referee in this epic struggle of art, The Artist should be kicked out for cheating, because remaining silent (more like mute) and hitting on that cool old jazz vibe is sort of a kick in the nuts for all the other candidates that cared to write conversations in their scripts. Now I know this supposed to be a higher form of art and a much harder one for sure, but it seems to me that we’ve got ourselves an orange in a basket full of apples. And finally, a movie that I enjoyed with all my heart and it really moved me – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Near. I can’t give a reasonable explanation why it’s not going to win I just feel it that way.
I was actually rather surprised by this year’s nominations, I think they’ve underestimated some of the movies this year. If I need to put one of them up there with the others, it’d be Drive with Ryan Gossling. I think it’s a very good year for him and Drive really shows the best side of him in this quiet crazy Clint Eastwood style. I’m also surprised they didn’t nominate Shame, although I haven’t seen the movie I think it definately deserves attention.
The Best Actor in a Leading Role
I think the real race here is between Brad Pitt and George Clooney and Clooney is going to finally win. My guess and my favourite in this category are the same. As for the others, I think only Jean Dujardin has some chance for the prise, but I don’t beleive his silent movie hype is going to get him that far.
It’s going to seem that I’m too much of a Gossling fan, but I still think Drive is a great movie and his acting in it was amazing. Also, maybe wildly inappropriate, but what about Thomas Horn? He has one movie, but he is the real deal and he’s like what — 14?
The Best Actress in a Leading Role
Ah, the ladies… It is always hard to compete, and make a guess for that matter, when Maryl Streep is nominated. That woman is an Oscar Monster and we see her best in The Iron Lady. I must say I didn’t like the movie itself, but she did a damn good job in it. My guess is that she’ll take Ozzie home tonight. My personal favourite, though, is Rooney Mara, of course, not only because she’s young and attractive, but because she really went that extra mile with the effort and dedication she put in Lisbeth. And because I honestly didn’t recognise her the forst time I watched the trailer.
The Best Actor in a Supporting Role
I think this is the toughest category this year. I’ve got reasons why all of them should win and no reasons why any of them should lose. However, I suspect the old bad boy Nick Nolte will scoop this one away with his brilliant old repented alcoholic father figure and I can’t say I disagree. Maybe I’ll root just a little bit more for Christopher Plummer in his purple sweater and old gay guy pitch.
Obviously I can’t say anyone else deserves to be nominated, because I wouldn’t throw any of them out.
The Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The absolute winner in this category should be Octavia Spencer and I think this is how the Academy will see it too. I think she made the most of her role and she really nailed it by keeping a stiff upper lip so well when saying: Eat my sh*t!
I was particularly impressed by the performance of Sandra Bullock in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and I think she could’ve brought some more drama to this category if she were included.
The Best Director
I’m pretty sure this one’s going to Michel Hazanavicius, because he’s done something new and fresh, but I would really love it to go to Woody Allen. Not because I’m a fan, but because I love the way he told us that story and how magical it was.
I have to admit that I’m not such an expert on directling, so I’ll have to trust the Academy with their choice of the best directors.
The Best Original Screenplay
I get a feeling that this one is going out to Iran. I know it doesn’t happen often a foreign movie to be nominated let alone win an Academy Award, but I have this feeling in my gut that this is what’s going to happen. And as much as I apreciate the drama of A Separationmy personl preferences go with Midnight in Paris and all its magic and jazz. I’d also give a chance to the Wall Street morale issues in Margin Call though it is still not enough.
I should really wave a finger at the Academy fellows for this one though. Where is Anonymous? This is one of the most exciting stories of the year and it’s not there?
The Best Adapted Screenplay
Having a good guess in this category suposedly requires me to have read the books as well as seen the movies. However, I haven’t read any of them and the only thing I can do is say which one is my favourite and take a wild guess which one they’ll pick. As it seems this also isn’t a trivial task. All candidates have strong and engaging stories. Hugo and The Ides of March fall a little bit behind, but from there on things get pretty tight even for my own decision. I think, in the end, I’d like it if Thinker Tailer Soldier Spy wins it, because I don’t think it’ll win anything else, but my instincts tell me that it will be Moneyball.
There are many other titles that can be in here, but as I said, this is a pretty tight one and I’m not sure I know enough to give such advise. you could look at The Rum Diary and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo though.
…and what about Twilight?!
As a person who has read the books (I really don’t want to be called a fan) I must thank the Academy for their professional and objective choice NOT to nominate the Twilight movie this year. I congratulate you and I celebrate your choice!